Internet history teaches us that service innovation follows
bandwidth expansion in a ‘virtuous circle’ of
development. Application continues to drive bandwidth and bandwidth
will drive new applications.
In 1995, 56k accelerated walled garden services from AOL and
online bulletin boards. From 1997 to 2000, broadband speeds of
512k-1MB and the introduction of NetScape gave birth to the World
Wide Web. In early 2000 with 2MBs, came peer-to-peer file sharing,
online games, music downloads and Napster. In 2005, bandwidth of 2
- 5MBs brought us Web 2.0, MySpace, FaceBook and YouTube. Today, a
speed of 10 - 50 MBs brings us HD IP TV and VoD.
With history the best predictor of the future, what should we
expect from the next 40 years of the Internet? Video will
completely reshape the Internet and its use. Video will be the
driving force behind a total transformation of the user
experience.
Users will immerse themselves in video-based interactions
anywhere, anytime, on any device. Today’s Web 2.0 and TV
services will merge into a unified, ubiquitous, interactive,
social, and media-rich experience for a new breed of
viewer/user.
In five years, annual global IP traffic will reach two-thirds of
a zettabyte (the equivalent of 250 billion DVDs = 1 zettabyte) and
the sum of all forms of video will exceed 91 percent of global
consumer traffic. A prediction—annual global IP traffic will
reach a yottabyte (250 trillion DVDs) within 40 years!