For the first time, Amazon reported that e-book sales surpassed
those of paperback and hardback books combined. Some feel this
victory for electronic books is short-lived though and that
virtually all books will be gone in a relatively short period of
time.
Last week Amazon reported that for every 100 print books sold,
105 e-books for the Kindle are being purchased. E-books are nothing
new, but it has only been in the last two to three years that they
garnered serious attention from the average consumer. Before the
Kindle, e-books were mostly targeted by geeks that would do
anything on their phone or PDA just to say they could.
E-books have been around since at least the late '90s. Peanut
Press was one of the original e-book sellers that originally
focused on the PalmOS platform, later expanding to half a dozen
platforms as the years went on. They were even owned by Palm for a
few years before passing through several more hands until
ultimately being purchased by Barnes & Noble. The problem for
them, and most other e-book publishers at the time, is the
technology to put e-books in most consumers' hands just wasn't
there.
That all changed with the Kindle in 2007. E-ink screens could be
made large enough that you didn't feel you were flipping pages
after every 10 lines, something that was, and still is, a problem
with reading on a phone. Yes, Kindle software is available for the
big phone platforms, but most people are reading on a Kindle device
or a tablet, either with Kindle software or Apple's iBook
software.
The whole revolution has thrown the publishing industry for a
loop. E-books are a disruptive technology, ignited by the Kindle,
that has traditional publishers concerned for their future.
Forbes has a blog that goes as far as saying that books
themselves are going away. I don't agree with that, but the article
makes some valid points and there is no question in my mind that
certain kinds of books are on the way out. It points out that
immediately after the BP oil spill there were books chronicling the
entire saga, and their sales were as disastrous as the oil spill
itself. Twenty years ago, a book like that would have had decent
sales, but today, people got so much information from 24/7 news
stations and a constant stream of updates from Twitter and news
sites on the Internet, they didn't need to get a book that recapped
most of what they already knew.
People will always have a thirst for novels though. That model
too is changing. There are dozens of articles which describe how
talented authors are going straight to the consumer with 99 cent
books. People will gamble on a book that is less than a dollar and
if the story is any good, sales will take off. Sure, there are some
authors that can easily command USD 9.99 prices, but they are a
dying breed. Independent author John Locke summarizes the situation
by saying, "I don't have to prove my books are as good as the New
York Times Best Selling Authors -- they have to prove their books
are 10 times better than mine!" That is getting harder and harder
to do. E-books and suitable reading devices make publishing within
anyone's reach.
I think there are other books that will always have a market as
well. Historical books that are well written and go beyond the
dryness of the poorly researched online information still have a
large following. Who knows? Maybe in 10 to 15 years there will be a
book about the BP oil spill that will show how the fiasco changed
the course of energy policy in the coming decade and will be a big
seller.
The final chapters on most paper books are being written and
e-books are taking center stage. Do you think e-books have a long
life before them or do you think books themselves, whatever the
format, may be on their last legs?