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Dabur increases forecasting accuracy from 25 to over 60 percent
With SAP APO, the company achieved better business outcomes by automating its forecasting process By Varun Aggarwal, InformationWeek, September 13, 2010

FMCG is a highly competitive industry where a company’s top line may be high and its bottom line can be rather low. Dabur, one of the largest FMCG players in the country, has consistently delivered good financial results over the past five years with a CAGR of 18 percent in net revenue and 33 percent in PAT. Despite this robust growth, the Dabur management believed there is potential to derive incremental growth through supply chain efficiencies.

However, it became a challenge for the management to further increase the company’s efficiency to improve its profitability and increase its bottom line.

Supply Chain Exercise
IT has always been an integral part of Dabur. With the help of its IT team, the management captured the total opportunity potential from a supply chain exercise across different levers.

The findings of this exercise follow:

  • It was observed that incremental revenue through lost sales accounted
    for six percent revenue.
  • Lost revenue is often the result of a shortage in stock.
  • The company found that cost reduction was another area in which
    they could become more profitable.
  • Damaged goods formed about 10 percent of the existing spend.

The company thus estimated that this exercise would result in benefits of about ` 50 to 75 crore.

Dabur’s supply chain is far more complex than other FMCG firms in India
given its large product portfolio. This made the supply chain exercise fairly
challenging.

“We have a diverse product portfolio with more than 800 SKUs spanning multiple shelf life: Food, Personal Care, Home and Healthcare products. This is a
fragmented and multi-tiered distribution network with more than 10 plants,
over 40 warehouses and about 1,500 distributors. We also have a large fragmented front-end and seasonal products,” informs Anil Garg, GM – IT, Dabur.

Forecasting is critical to any FMCG company to meet demands, prevent
overproduction, underproduction etc.

It was hence imperative for Dabur to improve its forecasting in order to
grow further.

Inefficient forecasting
At Dabur, forecasting is done at various levels. Sales forecasting is done with
the help of market research data  collected from the field. Based on the
sales forecast, demand and distribution planning is done. This includes a product
requirements plan and a confirmed delivery schedule.

However, since most of the work was done manually, this process resulted in
certain issues. For instance, the supply chain planning was driven by top-down
forecasts at the brand level—subject to large variations. Hence, there was
low forecasting accuracy even for the firm forecasts. Moreover, there was an
absence of visibility into customer stock and secondary sales details.

When it came to demand and distribution planning, there were no formal inventory norms based on demand and supply variability.

Time-phasing of requirements was driven by supply rather than demand considerations. Further, manual Excel-based planning resulted in poor responsiveness of the planning cell.

As for supply planning, there were no formal prioritization rules for production scheduling. There were also delays in running the Master Production Schedule (MPS) and Materials Requirement Planning (MRP) due to multiple Rolling Production Plans (RPP) and manual intervention.

Capacity constraints were not evaluated across multiple RPPs and there was no performance metrics dashboard.

Finally, there were issues even in production planning. Intermediate planning was not a formal step in the planning cycle. There were also no formal Receivables Management (RM) and Payables Management (PM) inventory norms. Moreover, there was loose integration of procurement planning with production planning.

Says Garg, “This entire process was fraught with underutilization of information. This resulted in significant costs across multiple value levers.” Low forecasting led to excess inventory, high operational costs and lost sales.

 

"The entire sales volume plan is generated by the system once you input the growth target. With Excel sheets, human errors were high ”

- Anil Garg, GM - IT, Dabur



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